Forecasting and economic simulation

intermediate

Lecture - Learning outcomes:

EK1_W02, EK1_W05, EK1_W06, EK1_W08

Exercises - Learning outcomes:

EK1_U03, EK1_U04, EK1_U05

During the Course of Forecasting and Economic Simulations, the following key issues are addressed:

1. Introduction to forecasting / 2 h /

2. Predictions based on classic trend models. / 4 h /

3. Prediction based on adaptive models / 4 h /

4. Heuristic methods; / 3 h /

5. Scenarios and decision-making games. / 2 h

6. Exam / 2h /

Subject matter Forecasting and economic simulations cover the following issues:

1. Introduction to forecasting / 2 h /

(Basic definitions, forecast functions, forecasting rules, forecasting, forecasting, forecasting, forecasting, model verification)

2. Predictions based on classic trend models. / 4 h /

(Basic division of methods of classical trend models, short-term, medium and long-term models, seasonal and cyclical models)

3. Prediction based on adaptive models / 4 h /

(Holt model, Winters model, Brown model, multiplication and additive model)

4. Heuristic methods; / 3 h /

(Basic heuristic methods)

5. Scenarios and decision-making games. / 2 h

(Use scenario method in business

- D. Blaszczyk; Introduction to forecasting and simulation, Scientific Publishing House, Warsaw 2006;

- M. Sobczyk, Forecasting, Beck Publishing, Warsaw 2006;

D. Witkowska, Fundamentals of Econometrics and Forecasting Theory, Oficyna Publishing House, Warsaw 2012;

- M. Cieslak, Economic forecasting. Methods and Applications; PWN Scientific Publishing House, Warsaw 2005;

- G.S. Maddala; Econometrics, PWNE Scientific Publishing House, Warsaw 2008;

- B.Guzik; DF. Appenzeller, Forecasting and Simulation. Selected issues, Wydawnictwo Akademia Ekonomiczna w Poznaniu, Poznan.

K_W01 has basic general knowledge in the field of economics and related sciences and their place in the social sciences and relations to other sciences S1A_W01

K_W02 Has basic knowledge in microeconomics and macroeconomics at basic level S1A_W01

K_W05 knows the tools used for selected types of economic research and knows what purpose they serve. S1A_W06

K_W06 knows and understands the relationship between economics, the economy and their environment, including the types of social ties and the rationality they govern, and the genesis of their historical evolution S1A_W04

S1A_W09

Criteria for evaluation:

2 (nds) - lack of analytical skills, ability to use tools and forecasting methods, lack of basic issues and adaptation to the economic situation;

3 (dst) - knowledge of basic analytical methods and tools used in forecasting, basic knowledge of the subject matter;

4 (db) - good knowledge and ability to use most tools and methods of forecasting. Good knowledge of adaptation of analyzes to the market situation;

5 (bdb) - very good knowledge of analytical tools and methods. Used in forecasting. Excellent ability to use prognostic analyzes for economic situation.

During the traineeship, the student should use the knowledge of the subject matter. The type of business entity and institution, the scope of duties, the activities carried out, the tasks entrusted to the student for performance during the apprenticeship should be correlated in key issues with the subject matter.